CategoryInvesting

10 Essential Investor Tips For Successful Investing

Trading and investing into the financial markets has never been more popular. More and more people are starting to see the benefits of taking a little time to, first invest in themselves through a trading and investing education, but also using that knowledge on the financial markets.

Whilst traders may take quicker positions and investor will most likely be holding positions for much longer, perhaps months or even years. So, if you fancy investing into the financial markets successfully, and profit from companies you already know about like Google, Facebook or Microsoft, then these are the ten essential things that an investor must do and know before they start. Let’s take a look…

1. What are your goals?

It sounds simple but many people start investing into a trillion dollar market without any type of plan which, let’s face it, is essentially a gamble. Whilst it can be very simple to invest profitably for the long-term you must define your goals as this will align your expectations correctly, so you don’t kick yourself in the teeth if you don’t hit a million dollars in one day. For example, knowing whether you are investing for the next five or twenty-five years can make a huge difference to how you decide to invest.

2. Start early for compound interest

The single biggest reason to the success of most billionaires is the power of ‘compound interest’. Even Albert Einstein regarded this as the ‘eighth wonder of the world’. It basically means that your money makes you money as all the gains you make you put back into an investment so it compounds and builds over time. Sounds good right? It definitely is! The earlier you start the better but no matter how old you are it’s never too late to start but imperative that you do actually start!

3. Every little helps

No matter how little or how big you can invest, it is well worthwhile investing on a regular basis. It sounds so simple but most people don’t see the point in investing just $10 per month. However, if you look to the future by the time you’re very old that amounts to a lot especially if you parked it into some good investments over the years. Of course, most people have a ‘spend today and save tomorrow’ mentality and that’s the trap folks. Save and invest regularly to reap the rewards in the long run – you’ll be glad you did.

4. Diversify

It’s imperative to spread your capital across a wide range of investments to reduce your risk and increase potential returns over the long-term. Whilst some investments are doing poorly some others may be doing great, thereby balancing it out. However, if you’re fully invested into just one thing then it’s either 100% right or wrong. There are thousands of markets across currencies, stocks, commodities and indices so the opportunity is there.

5. Educate yourself

By far the most important tip. You must educate yourself and learn your craft. After all if you’re investing your hard-earned capital it makes sense to do your homework. Even if you read all the articles here and watched all the videos you’ll be doing far better than the majority of investing wannabes who simply give away their money to the markets.

6. Have practical expectations

Of course, we all want that million dollar investment and for many it will come at some point. But you can’t plan for that, if it happens great if not then you still need a plan to survive and to reach your goals as discussed in the first tip. Remember it’s the journey that’s the most beautiful part and what you do on a daily basis that makes the difference.

7. But don’t limit yourself

It’s important one must remain conservative in deciding which investment to take. However, that shouldn’t limit you to just what you know. Be creative and find opportunities no matter how uncomfortable they may be. After all if it was that comfortable everyone would be doing it. Be adventurous in finding opportunities but be conservative in deciding which ones to take.

8. Manage your risk

Successful investing is all about managing risk. If you have $1,000 to invest then there’s no point in putting all of that on just one investment. You’re basically saying it has a 100% success rate… which of course is highly unlikely. If you follow the steps above, like making sure you diversify, then you’ll be on the right path.

9. Review constantly

A very simple step to achieving more from what you are already doing is to review your investments constantly. However, this does not mean to look at your profit and loss of a five-year investment every single day – you’ll never make it to the fifth year as markets move up and down. But it’s important to review what investments have worked and have not worked. Concentrate on doing more of the stuff that has worked and find out where you’re going wrong with the stuff that hasn’t.

10. Have fun!

Sounds simple but most people forget that are best work comes from when we enjoy the process. Whilst investing is a serious process you are allowed to enjoy it too. In fact the buzz of finding an opportunity, researching it, investing into it and then seeing the result is exciting in itself.

There you have it ten essential tips for successful investing.


How to Plan Your Investments

Whether you are an individual or a corporate body planning your investments ahead is of at most importance. As planning your investments means planning your future financial status and meeting unforeseen with ease and confidence it has become life blood that makes your path of hardships a bed of roses. Planning your finances involve planning your inflows and outflows i.e., In short managing the entire flow of funds during a certain course of time.

Thus, it is a must for anyone to plan your investments well in hand so; that your future will be safe and you can encounter any issue with ease and comfort. A proper investment planning would make your financial distress also a bliss as you always have a surplus reserve for different unforeseen of life. The reasons for financial distress could be multitudinous but the survival rate is higher and quicker for those who are financially planned when compared to those who are not. For having a proper investment planning you must follow few but regular steps which will save you at the eleventh hour. Let us look at few steps that you must follow to cushion yourself financially and to get a tag of well investment planner.

• The first and foremost step in investment planning is to assess your income. Asses all your inflows, which must include any sort of long term or annual cash inflows that you are expecting.

• Once you assessed your cash inflows, the next major step is to set a goal that could be any specific aspect that you would like to achieve with the money you are going to save from this year onwards.

• Once you set forth your goals and assess your inflows the next step is to plan your savings. The other way planning your investments. To plan your investments well you must know what your risk coefficient is and how much profits you want to make out of your little investments. To know this you must look at variety of financial and demographic and socio- economic factors that affect you and your family’s lifestyle.

• Once you are done with the assessment of your risk coefficients and return expectations the next big leap is to set an investment strategy. Under this, you will choose among different investment alternatives that are available to you based on your risk and profit margins.

• Once you choose a basket of investment options, go with the ones that are convenient for you in terms of time horizon, maturity period and return margins and so on. Having a clear investment strategy would not only make you a good investment planner but also a supersaver to your own self and to your family at times of emergencies.


The New-Age Investment – Alternative Investment

Alternative Investment implies investing in assets other than the traditional methods such as stocks, bonds, cash, etc. These could be private equity, hedge funds, real estate, commodities, precious metals, wine, art, etc. These type of investments are held by high net worth individuals, or institutional investors. The addition of this type of investment to the portfolio allows diversification, reduces risks and enhances returns.

The performance of assets used in alternative investments is relatively lower when compared to those in the traditional methods. They are relatively more difficult to value. They are also less liquid when compared to traditional methods.

Some popular types of alternative investments being widely used are:

Private Equity:

This can be defined as investing in private companies such as start-ups, venture capital, and financing throughout phases of the company’s growth. This investment is done in companies that do not issue public stocks. These firms raise funds through capital invested by institutional and non-institutional investors.

Direct Investment in Private Companies:

This implies investing in a start-up or a private company directly instead of the equity. This is a high risk and high return proposition.

Real Assets:

This implies investing in physical assets which are of high value. Examples of such assets are precious metals, real estate, oil, wine, art, jewelry, etc.

Hedge Funds:

In this case, funds are collected from a number of investors to form a common pool of funds. These funds are invested using different types of strategies to earn the return on investments. They have the advantage that they need less SEC regulations than other funds.

Managed Futures:

This is similar to Hedge funds where a common pool of investor’s funds is created. These funds are invested in various financial instruments such as commodities, currency and interest rate markets.

Financial Derivatives:

A financial derivative is an arrangement where the investor is promised a payment when a certain asset reaches a certain level. These securities include futures, options, forwards and swaps.

Fund of Funds:

This is a means of diversifying investments. It is achieved by investing in multiple managers, asset classes or strategies.

Private Placement Debt:

Investors can receive a steady cash flow by investing in a private company through promissory notes.

As the stock market becomes volatile and unpredictable, people are seeking safe investment methods. At such a time alternative investment schemes have come to a safe secure option to private investors. Therefore, they are becoming highly popular. However, they cannot replace traditional methods completely. They should be used to complement them. This will help to increase and diversify the investment portfolio and minimize the risks of investment.


Reduce Your Stake

To begin with, your risk appetite depends on certain factors which are your age, personality, financial and past experience. You need to understand that younger people tend to have a higher risk appetite. This is attributed to the fact that they have a lower relative inexperience. Older folks may have experienced losses in the past due to bad judgment and decisions. As a result, they are more careful as they trod and progress in life. There are hard times indeed, and as such, you must be averse to risk. If you desire better results and big profits, it is essential you allocate your resources efficiently and avoid the risk of losing your entire invested assets.

First and foremost, you need to identify what are your asset invested assets. It may be financial, physical or spiritual. Financial advantages are cash, stocks and equities. Physical plus point are liquid assets such as buildings. Spiritual assets include your character, prayer and obligation to GOD. Given these points, your investment when done with a long-term focus can produce amazing high returns, which would support your future plans. How nervous do you get when you lose? The rule of the game is not to put all your eggs in one basket. It is important to diversify in order to reduce your stake. For instance, if you pull together all your money into a business venture, definitely, the chances of getting back your hard-earned money is hard because you have raised your risk appetite. The truth of the matter is if you do not want volatility, you better minimize the menace of instability and protect your investments.

Tips on how to manage a high risk appetite

It is important to take time to study your risk appetite. Keeping an eye on it can prevent minor mistakes from plunging you into big problems. Always make sure you learn the basics and set concrete and meaningful goals. Diversify and review your risk assets regularly in order to get a profitable venture. As you walk along the line, you need to learn how to reward yourself. Pay yourself by either selling a small part of your profitable venture or investing more in other projects. Did your goals meet up with planned objectives? Remember that there are many fraudsters waiting for the opportunity to steal your profits and eat the fruits of your labor. Avoid anything that is free it is usually a trap that may explode your risk appetite.


The Power of a Penny

I think we all dream of it… walking through a yard sale and discovering a rare Picasso that the owner was sure was a fake.

Or maybe it’s a personal letter from George Washington tucked away in the attic of a house you just purchased.

Personally, I was always hoping to uncover buried pirate treasure – though highly unlikely, considering that I grew up in Kentucky rather than near the coast.

Earlier this year, one man uncovered a rare penny buried in a parsnip field in Nottinghamshire that is expected to sell for £15,000 (approximately $18,280) at auction on March 15. The penny was minted during the time of Viking king Sihtric Caoch roughly 1,100 years ago. And despite being buried in the ground for more than a millennium, the coin is in extremely fine condition.

But you don’t need to head to the rolling hills of the U.K. with a metal detector to make a nice profit in rare and ancient coins. There’s actually a much easier way to grow your wealth…

To properly introduce you to the world of investing in rare and ancient coins, I’ve gone in search of an expert.

Geoff Anandappa is an investment portfolio manager for Stanley Gibbons Ltd., the world’s leading brand name in collectibles, based in England but with offices in London, the Channel Islands, Hong Kong and Singapore. The Stanley Gibbons Group includes the world’s oldest rare-stamp merchant (established in 1856) and philatelist to British royalty since 1914; and the U.K.’s largest coin dealer, A. H. Baldwin & Sons (established 1872).

Jocelynn: I think most Americans are aware of the impressive size of the American coin market, particularly with regular stories hitting the newswires about rare American coins selling for over a million dollars. But are there other markets that investors should be paying attention to because of their growth?

Geoff: Rare and early coins from increasingly prosperous areas around the world are rising in demand from collectors in search of a piece of history. Coins from Eastern Europe, such as Russia, Poland and Hungary, have seen some prices increase tenfold in the past decade. Coins from India and the Middle East, long ignored by Western collectors, are now of intense interest. Even traditional collecting areas – such as ancient Greek and Roman, as well as Western European and British coins – have increased over fivefold in the past decade.

Jocelynn: Where is this price growth coming from?

Geoff: Some of this demand has been stimulated by the rise in the price of gold and silver – but the bullion value of rare coins is far surpassed by their numismatic value. Far more importantly, collectors have recognized the rarity of coins in exceptional condition, and so the premium for such coins has escalated accordingly.

Jocelynn: If many of these areas are seeing such growth, should investors be worried about these rare coins being overvalued?

Geoff: Despite the strong demand and price rises, these rare world coins are still very much undervalued when compared to their U.S. counterparts. The size and prosperity of the American collector base, coupled with the relatively small number of rare coins, means that U.S. rarities go for 10 or 20 times the price of equivalent coins from England or ancient Greece and Rome – and perhaps 100 times the price of their Asian or Middle Eastern equivalents.

This discrepancy offers a unique opportunity for U.S. investors to diversify their collection with rare world coins that are seeing substantial and steady growth in value.

Jocelynn: When it comes to American coins, I know that the grade is very important in understanding the quality of the coin, and hence, its value. Does the same grading system apply to significantly older world coins?

Geoff: Most coins sold in North America are graded on a scale from 1 to 70 by independent grading services such as Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS) or Numismatic Guaranty Corporation (NGC). This may be possible for more modern, mass-produced coins. However, grading is much more difficult and becomes more subjective with older coins – especially hammered coins where the quality of the strike makes each coin unique, even before any wear due to circulation is taken into consideration.

In England and Europe, there are essentially four grades of condition: Fine, Very Fine, Extremely Fine and Uncirculated (“Fleur de Coin” if exceptional). The terms “Good” and “About” can qualify these grades. Thus, Good Very Fine (GVF) is better than Very Fine (VF), which is, in turn, better than About Very Fine (AVF).

Jocelynn: Do you have any advice for someone who wants to start adding rare world coins to their collection? Where do you begin?

Geoff: Unless you wish to start collecting coins rather than investing in them, it is not advisable to try to put together “sets.” Often, a set will include less rare coins that are not of investment quality, and therefore less likely to increase in price. Additionally, a set of similar coins will tend to rise (and fall) in value at the same rate. Instead, concentrate on finding rare coins, in the finest condition, from a range of different collecting areas. All of the coins should, in time, show a good return – with a few showing exceptional returns as new areas become more popular.

Wealth Solutions in Uncertain Times

We’ve only just scratched the surface when it comes to using collectibles to increase and diversify your investments. Collectibles, or what we often refer to as “quiet wealth,” are a way of protecting your assets not only from upheaval in the market, but also from the uncertainty we are facing with a government that has accumulated more than $19 trillion in debt and is militarizing our police force.

Proper planning now will not only work to protect your assets as America struggles to find its footing again, but it will also help you sleep well at night knowing that you chose to diversify your investments outside the volatility of the market.


Millennials Are Gonna Pay Big

My friend L wants to live out of a van.

For the moment, she works for Whole Foods and walks dogs for extra cash. The rest of the time, though, she climbs – indoors or outdoors, it doesn’t matter.

Every time she’s able to put together a few days of paid time off… she’s off scaling mountains in Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee or Colorado.

And now she’s ready to take this hobby to the next step.

A month ago, L told me she’s going to commit to climbing – all the time. That means living out of a van, one she’s been outfitting herself. It’ll have a bed, a mini-kitchen, gear storage – everything she’ll need to live life on the open road.

Now this might seem like an unusual choice, but L is 25 – she’s a millennial. And her generation is increasingly able to make decisions like these because millennials are incredibly adept at exploiting the new technologies that make them possible.

In fact, these technologies are setting up to make investors a fortune…

One of the potentially biggest technologies that L will be taking advantage of is mobile banking.

The reason is simple: Since she’s living on the road, she’s going to need to “gig” for money while she travels.

A gig is a job with no employment arrangement. That could mean quickly helping someone with a fast home-construction project or acting as a research assistant to people like me who need information quickly for an issue. Other gigs are more sophisticated, like writing a small part of a computer program.

In some instances, your client could be someone in Singapore, Dubai, New York or London.

After you complete the gig and it comes time to be paid, the client simply sends you the money using a smartphone app, such as Venmo, PayPal or Dwolla. So it’s easy for people like L to make money while they’re traveling in pursuit of their passions.

As a result, this type of payment platform is gaining wild popularity.

Follow the Millennial Money

Remember, L isn’t the only one doing this. Her entire generation – the millennial generation – sees this way of living as a viable option because they’ve grown up with smartphones and the Internet, which have become just as vital as electricity and water to them.

As you may know, millennials are between the ages of 18 and 34 today. This generation numbers a whopping 92 million people in just the U.S. alone. That makes it the largest generation in history, overtaking the baby-boom generation, which numbers 77 million.

Globally, the millennial generation is estimated to be as large as 2 billion people strong.

And many of the habits of U.S. millennials are shared by their peers in Australia, the United Kingdom, China, India, Brazil, Russia, etc.

In other words, if you travel, it won’t take you long before you run into a millennial who, like my friend L, is pursuing a passion – in outdoor rock climbing, surfing, scuba diving, mountaineering, volunteering, etc.

Most of them depend on mobile payments to get paid while they pursue their passion. And other millennials who are still rooted in one place use these services as well. They may use a platform such as PayPal for everyday activities, such as transferring money to a friend or paying for their Uber rides.

In fact, a recent survey showed that 15% of millennials use mobile payments multiple times per day. Another 10% use it once a day. And 29% use it several times in a week.

It’s no wonder then that mobile payment growth is skyrocketing higher. For 2016, growth is expected to hit 183.3% – and it’s expected to double in 2017. By 2020, total transactions are expected to hit $314 billion, growth of 1,034%!

That’s where you want to be as an investor – in explosive growth trends just like that.

Banking on a Powerful Trend

I’m expecting similar gains for the millennial-based stock recommendation I’m releasing this month.

Now, I can’t give this stock away for free here. And right now, there isn’t an ETF that is liquid enough for me to recommend for you that would capture this millennial mega trend. However, keep checking back, and I’ll be sure to let you know once I find a good ETF to recommend.

In the meantime, I suggest following companies that benefit from millennial trends, such as mobile payment services. Because that’s where the big money is going to flow.


Brexit and Trump Were Shocks – Here’s What’s Coming Next

It started with the Brexit vote in the UK, and then Trump’s victory in the US. These two votes sent shock waves throughout the world, as none of the political elite could ever have imagined such results could possibly happen. But they did happen, and there are plenty more shock waves to come. Over the next couple of years we will likely see many more ‘black swan’ events, promoting pro-independence, and even outright separatism movements. The curtain is being pulled back further, exposing more of the establishment status quo.

First the UK, then the US, and now the next big ‘shocks’ will come from Europe, We have just spent the past four decades living in an ‘age of entitlement‘, with governments offering handouts every election, treating its voters like heroin addicts, their motto being “just promise them more stuff, and they will be happy.” It didn’t matter which party, they all did the same thing. The problem was they didn’t have the money to pay for all these freebies, and now it’s the day of reckoning.

Those in charge have run global economies into the ground, initiating monetary policies that included creating trillions of dollars out of thin air, to even forcing negative interest rates onto consumers. They have robbed the seniors of any return on their savings, and have now jeopardized pension funds, which have now incurred massive funding gaps thanks to low rates.

What we have seen in the last year has been quite remarkable, but what’s about to happen is going to make the last couple of years seem docile. There are a number of big political events coming in Europe in the next year. The next big date is December 4th, when we have both the Italian referendum on constitutional change, and the Austrian Presidential election. With anti-EU sentiment rising throughout Europe, either one of these events could be the domino that triggers a contagion, with more dominoes falling. sending entire continent into a state of terminal socioeconomic collapse.

The European Union is at great risk of unraveling, and the potential financial repercussions are massive. Those Europeans who have converted Euro to US dollars on any Euro rally are in a very good position today. Investors need to understand the big picture on what is coming in the global economy. Once you have the big picture, then devise strategies on how to profit from it.

The number one priority is to protect our wealth. Many lost a fortune in the real-estate crash in 2006, and the stock market crash in 2008. We are very concerned that these same people are going to get hit extremely hard in the coming global Bond Market Crash.

You must understand that all markets are connected. When investors in Europe saw rising unemployment, and escalating violence, they didn’t want to leave all their money in that economy. They looked around and even though the US economy was not growing rapidly, it was growing. They also knew that the US dollar was the world reserve currency, and that the US equity markets were the most liquid in the world. So they started to open US dollar bank accounts, and invest in the US stock markets. Investors from Russia, China, and all over the world are doing the same thing, they are moving their capital out of perceived risky areas, into the perceived safety of the US dollar, North American real estate, and equity markets.

So while we have seen a lot of volatility in the past two years, it is nothing compared to what is coming. We are already starting to see the consequences of negative rates. Bonds are now being sold off. This is happening in government bonds and corporate bonds. This is a major trend change, one that is going to deliver massive losses to many investors.

Things are heating up and you will need to navigate through this fast approaching, massive trend change. It will impact everything in your life: your finances, your currency, your mortgage, and your ability to sleep at night. These changes will hit the currency, equity, precious metal, oil, bond, and real estate markets. If you understand what is coming, and have a concrete plan on how to nimbly maneuver your investments as each phase is triggered, that’s good. But if you do not a plan, get help before the coming tsunami of economic changes.


Peer To Peer Lending In India – Better Than Traditional Investment Options

Peer to peer lending is going to revolutionize the lending platform of India in a couple of years. This platform promises immense return in a very short period. It mutually benefits the lenders and borrowers with healthy returns by eliminating any middlemen in between.

A very informative article on this topic made me think to invest in such a platform. Already this type of an investment option is doing wonders in countries like United States and soon it is going to hit India.

The article which I read gives a very wonderful overview and meaning about peer to peer lending in India. Trust me, I had no clue about it before I read this article.

The following points that needs to be kept in mind about peer to peer lending are-

1] It is an online marketplace for lenders and borrowers
2] The benefit of using an online platform is that it makes P2P lending easier to afford than borrowing money through traditional financial institutions.
3] RBI will soon regulate peer to peer lending in India.

The Face of Peer to Peer Lending in India

Peer to peer lending can be identified as a disruptive technology; something people are not sure about. A good example of a disruptive technology is the Internet. in the beginning, Internet was mostly a source of information for academic people or researchers. However, it soon became a foundation of technological advancements as we know them today. the thing to understand here is that it can take some time to see the results and benefits of a disruptive technology.

Many people believe that the current decade is all about financial technology. We have seen innovations like virtual currency in the financial industry. Virtual currency a.ka. Bitcoin is taken as a revolution in the financial sector and has already sunk its roots in the Indian market. Therefore, an innovation like P2P lending should not come as a surprise to people interested in Indian financial market.

P2P Popularity in India

Peer to peer lending began from the Western markets but India was not far behind. The banking sector in India is only able to provide credit to 15% of the population which seems quite a small figure given that India is the largest democracy in the world. However, analysts believe that India is the largest P2P market. Due to the fact that many P2P platforms in India don’t make their books public, it is difficult to calculate the amount of lending through them. However, there are over 30 start-ups in India which proves that P2P lending is gradually becoming popular. Some of these companies provide individual loans but others mix individual and business loans.


What Is The Difference: Investing VS Trading

Investing vs Trading: What is the difference?

This is a commonly asked question that beginners have when they want to start managing their own brokerage accounts. Since most people are interested in stocks, I will use equities to explain the difference between these two strategies. Realistically, this goes far beyond equities, and there are many investment or assets types that I could use as an example.

What is an Investor?

A simple explanation of an investor is someone who buys stock in a company to make money off the companies operations. You commonly hear the terms Dividend Investor or the Buy and Hold Forever Strategy. This is someone who buys a stock because they think the company has the potential to grow in the long run. In macroeconomics, the long run is defined as over a year or more than one operating cycle. An investor will have a long-term outlook and some investors like Warren Buffet will buy and hold the same company for a lifetime.

What Does A Winning Investment Look Like?

A smart investor will look at the accounting and the fundamentals of a company because that is the way to see how a company has done in the past. Then they can speculate on how this company will do in the future.

The fundamentals of a business can be anything that gives a business an edge over their competition. For some companies, this won’t be things that directly show up in their financial statements. For example, I invested in a REIT because they had the best management team. This management team was more experienced than their competitions and this investment outperformed all the other REITS.

From an accounting perspective, a good investment will have an increasing net income, a balance sheet with improving assets, and a great looking cash flow. You don’t need to go to school and learn everything about financial statements but knowing the basics will help you with making informed investment decisions.

When someone holds a stock they want to make a profit through growth or get paid through dividends. This makes fundamentals and accounting important because they will tell you that this company can increase in size, continue paying you a dividend, or have a growing dividend.

Trading

A trader is someone who will buy and sell stock due to price volatility. Price volatility is the short-term price changes. This means that a trader will look at the short term trends instead of how well the company is doing over the long run. A trader will focus less on fundamentals and accounting. Instead, their focus is on Technical Analysis and other short-term price drivers.

The timing of a trade will be much shorter than an investor’s time frame. There are a few basic types of traders. One is a scalper or Day Trader who has extremely short term trades. By definition, these are people who hold a trade for less than a day. Another example is a swing trader. These traders hold an investment more than one day but will sell the trade off the trend swing which is normally less than a week.

What does a Successful trade look like?

This is really simple. A successful trade is when someone’s trade hits their intended price target or they hit their profit goal. Since traders are in a trade for less time they are in the market and out of the market as quickly as possible. A trader wants their trade to hit its price target as quickly as possible.

Another important thing is that they will set price goals. A trader will go for a small gain at a time. An equities day trader might want 1 percent gain a day where a swing trader might set a goal of 5 percent a week.


Market Timing and Market Forecasting

A few decades ago, it was widely believed that the most effective way to analyze the markets for trade was to determine the fundamentals, such as the number of bushels in storage, the current demand figures, the expected harvest yield, etc. Many assumed that Technical Analysis was not useful. Reasons given were that price action is random, or that it ignores the fundamental factors of the underlying asset. The facts are quite the contrary.

Many have come to learn that the old ‘buy and hold’ strategy can be a costly one. Stories abound of those who have found the value of their portfolio has only broken even (or lost value) after holding for several years. The financial crisis of 2008 highlights one of several historical periods where investors have lost millions. While it is always a good idea to know a company’s financial health as well as their future potential in sales/profits, what may be a healthy financial statement and outlook today can look a lot different tomorrow.

Technical analysis focuses on price movement, anticipating price direction based on its ebbs and flows (ie. swings, cycles, etc.). Fundamental factors of any asset is built into price action, as the market discounts everything. In addition, history tends to repeat itself and this repetitive nature of price action can be anticipated and taken advantage of.

Many technicians rely on various indicators that help expose some aspect of historical price data for the use of timing. Where one indicator might highlight some underlying cycle pattern that could help anticipate the next trend change period, another indicator might highlight a markets overbought or oversold condition, all relative to past price action.

The technical analyst relies heavily on price charts. Certain patterns often repeat giving the technician a heads-up to a potential price break. Such patterns are given names, such as the ‘Head-and-sholders’ pattern, the ‘wedge’ or ‘flag’ formation, etc. All of these technical approaches are useful to some degree.

Precise market timing is crucial in today’s volatile markets. Without greater precision in timing, the trader is exposed to a higher degree of risk and can leave more profit on the table.

Let me illustrate this.

For the sake of discussion, suppose that the price range of each trading day is 50 points. If your allowable risk exposure (how far you will allow the market to move against your position) is 50 points, you must enter the market on the exact day you expect the move to start in your favor to avoid being stopped out with a loss. If your allowable risk exposure is 100 points, you must be accurate in your timing within +/- one day to avoid getting stopped out with a loss. This highlights the importance of precision market timing.

Now in the real world, each day the price range varies from the next. Depending on how effective your market timing approach happens to be, you may be able to risk less than the average range in points. The less precise your market timing approach happens to be, the more you should initially risk on the trade.

While market timing itself can be loosely done using standard technical indicators, trend lines and moving averages, precision market timing is achievable with good market forecasting methods. Market forecasting for market timing purposes is extremely effective because, unlike most technical indicators that are ‘leading’ or ‘lagging’ in nature, a good market forecasting method can forecast a market turn to an exact day of a trend change. Giving any market forecasting method a small deviation allowance of +/- one day can give any trader an incredible edge in predicting market turns for the purpose of precision market timing and trading.

Some traders are historical legends having used market forecasting methods for precision market timing purposes. Who has not heard of William Delbert Gann (better known as WD Gann)? This financial trader is famous for developing several technical approaches, such as the use of Gann angles or the trend indicator. His forecasting methods included the use of the Square of Nine, cycle analysis and market geometry. By using ‘market forecasting’ tools such as these and others, he is famously reported to have many times turned a small amount of money into a large amount rather quickly.

So there are two main points that I hope you have garnered by reading this article. Point #1 is that in order to better manage your risk exposure and maximize your profit potential, the more precise you need to be with your market timing approach. Point #2 is that the most precise way to time the markets is to take advantage of market forecasting techniques, where often you can time your trades to the exact day of a new move.

There are many market forecasting secrets, methods and techniques that you can learn right now to improve your market timing. Some are good, some not so good. I have spent over three decades learning, testing and discovering market forecasting approaches. When I started, there was not much available as there are today. So it has definitely seen some growth over the years and therefore you should have no problem finding the approaches that will fit your style of trading and investing.


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